Public Finance

“We’re talking about big increases and every year and the cost is expected to go up almost 10% a year,” said Heath Fahle, policy director for the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation. “Health care, local aid, public safety, MBTA and road projects all get squeezed a little by these rapidly growing pension payments,” said Fahle.

The Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation on Wednesday predicted the upcoming budget cycle will differ significantly from the last two, during which tax receipts shattered projections and enabled the state to bulk up its cash reserves, pass one-time investments, and push the state budget up to $43.3 billion.

The analysis by the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation suggests that lawmakers may have to consider “tax increases or spending cuts” to balance the state’s $43 billion-plus budget. It would mark a stark reversal from recent years when officials’ primary money problem was jostling over ways to spend an unexpected windfall amid back-to-back years with a $1 billion surplus.