Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation President Doug Howgate said the consensus revenue estimate crafted by legislative and administration budget chiefs assumed the impacts from a capital gains slowdown and PTE credits would be "staggered over '23 and '24."

"The number is jarring, but I'm not sure 'surprising' is the right word. The reason I say that is when we spoke about revenue projections back in January, we and others highlighted two big known risks: cap gains and the pass-through entity excise," Howgate said. "The question was less if, but rather when we'd see them affect revenues."