Tax revenues for Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 and FY 2025 settle into a post-COVID pattern of lower growth as the economy slows, impacts from migration and an aging population emerge (Appendix A), and tax reforms take effect. Excluding revenues related to the four percent surtax on income over $1 million, MTF projects FY 2024 tax revenues of $39.53 billion or 1.6 percent above FY 2023; resulting in an $880 million shortfall to the $40.41 billion benchmark set by administrative and legislative budget leaders for FY 2024. 

FY 2025 tax revenues (excluding surtax) are projected to reach $40.5 billion[1], an increase of 2.4 percent over the MTF projection for FY 2024, predicated on the U.S. avoiding a recession as several economic models currently indicate.