April 16, 2020
PUBLIC FINANCE > Budget > FY 2021

COVID-19 Impact: What MTF’s Revised Tax Forecast Means for MBTA, MSBA, “Rainy Day” Fund, and Pension Contribution

MTF’s new analysis highlights the implications of our revised forecast on the MBTA, the Massachusetts School Building Authority (MSBA), and other purposes supported by dedicated tax revenue. We estimate that compared to the original consensus estimate, the MBTA will receive $53 million less in dedicated sales tax revenue, MSBA will receive $174 million less, and there will be no transfer to the state’s “rainy day” fund compared to the $278 million deposit that was expected previously. After adjusting for these transfers, the state’s budget writers face a tax revenue gap of nearly $4 billion as they work to balance the fiscal 2021 budget.