Budget leaders from the House, Senate, and Administration have agreed on a $40.410 billion consensus tax revenue figure for the fiscal year 2024 budget. Budget makers expect tax revenues to grow by $642 million (1.6 percent) over estimated FY 2023 collections of $39.768 billion. Notably, the consensus tax revenue agreement caps the use of income surtax revenues at $1 billion in the FY 2024 budget. That revenue is not included in the figures noted above. The FY 2023 tax revenue figure has also been revised upward by $151 million over the current benchmark of $39.618 billion.

Following a startling $11.5 billion surge in FY 2021 and FY 2022, tax revenues for this year and next settle into a lower and slower growth pattern as global risks escalate. MTF projects that FY 2023 revenues will top the $39.62 billion benchmark by $75 million and grow to $40.06 billion in FY 2024, an increase of $366 million or approximately 1 percent over FY 2023.