On December 2nd, the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation (MTF), along with the Department of Revenue (DOR) and other economic experts participated in the annual Consensus Revenue Hearing. The hearing offers administration and legislative budget leaders an opportunity to assess current revenue assumptions for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 and evaluate the resources that will be available to support budgeted spending in FY 2026. This brief uses the Consensus Revenue Hearing as the backdrop to examine potential revenue collections in both years. 

“We don’t know what’s going to happen,” Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation President Doug Howgate said at the hearing.

“There’s no need to kind of panic or take action for things that are unknown,” Howagate added. But he cautioned budget writers against planning for big spending growth next budget cycle, suggesting the state officials only increase spending by around 3 percent, as they did for FY25 after facing mid-year budget cuts in FY24.

Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 and FY 2026 tax revenues are projected to rebound to positive growth, after non-surtax revenue declines in FY 2022 and FY 2023; but overarching questions about the global economy and federal policy changes cloud the state’s larger fiscal picture. The Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation (MTF) projects non-surtax revenues of $40.9 billion in FY 2026, an increase of 3.1 percent over the revised FY 2025 estimate of $39.7 billion.

The overview will include major spending and policy proposals of Governor Healey's FY 2026 budget and how it compares to the FY 2025 budget.

Register here to attend virtually